Armadillo ECDSA-113

[cjack]

Status Update:

Progress: 156% of expected mean (85% cumulative probability)
Unique DPs collected: 1,093,619
Active agents: 29 (24× RTX 5090, 1× RTX 5070 Ti, 1× RTX 4070 Ti Super, 1× RTX 3090, 1× RTX 4070, 1× RTX 3060 Ti)
Fleet speed: 90.76 G/s
Efficiency: 78%
Collisions: 0 (still waiting)
Uptime: ~38 hours continuous
Why no collision yet?
Pollard's Rho is probabilistic — the "expected" iteration count is a median, not a guarantee. Being at 156% means we're in the statistical tail, but this is perfectly normal. The CDF is P(x) = 1 − e^(−π/4 · x²), so at x=1.56 there's still a ~15% chance of not having found it yet. Nothing is wrong — all agents are healthy and producing DPs at the correct rate.

ETA from current position:

90th percentile: ~7 hours
95th percentile: ~21 hours
99th percentile: ~52 hours

The 5090 fleet is available for another ~33 hours, which covers us up to the 95th percentile. Statistically, the collision is very likely to happen within the next day.

Stay tuned and join the battle!